2024: A Year of Elections

Commentary, personal observations, and predictions on elections around the world from a 23 year old American. I will not be covering my own country’s election, because who in their right mind would want to do that?

49% of the world’s population is going to the polls this year. This massive, historic number could convey the sense that democracy is thriving, but it’s a lot more complicated than that. Many of the elections taking place will not be free or fair. Many others may, paradoxically, yield results through democracy that threaten a country’s democratic process.

This group of elections, as a whole, feels unusual to me for their seeming lopsidedness, though much of the forecast could change in the upcoming months. A few yield good commentary for just how uncompetitive they are. More incumbents than normal are set to win in landslides, which makes 2024 feel like less of a “change” year than other big election years I’ve seen. Even considering this, there’s plenty to say. Some true juggernauts are deciding who will govern them later this year: India, the US, the UK, Mexico, and more.

I’m aware that it’s late May. A lot of elections already took place this year, and some big ones at that. I wish I had the idea to write about this earlier, but instead I got it yesterday, so we’ll make do. I never thought I would say this, but I have to give a big thank you to Rishi Sunak for that. Right now also feels especially timely because there are mere days until India and Mexico’s elections wrap up.

As an American, we get 24/7 coverage of our own elections and next to no coverage on those of other countries, even our close allies. I’m going to flip the script on that and only cover three non-US elections. This is both because I’ve always had a greater interest in politics outside of the United States, and because writing about or even giving a single thought to the upcoming US presidential and legislative elections is a draining, soul-crushing experience.

The three elections I’m covering will all be taking place in the coming weeks: India, Mexico, and the United Kingdom.

This is not unbiased commentary, and it will be filtered through my own personal lens as an American outsider. I also am a left-leaning individual and I can already warn you that my worldview will shine through at least a bit. I will try not to directly share my viewpoint on the issues, but at the end of the day, it’s political commentary.

Let’s get started with the largest democracy the world has ever seen.

India

Population: 1.44 billion

Election Date: April 19 — June 1, results announced June 4

Election Type: Legislative (lower house)

My level of knowledge about this election: Medium

An Indian election is a thing of beauty, a true modern wonder of the world. It takes an unwavering commitment to democracy and enormous amounts of work to make voting accessible and fair to all in a country of nearly a billion and a half people. The process of conducting an election in India, much less the election for the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament where most power lies), is strenuous and long. You may have noticed that this year’s election is set to take six weeks. People vote in seven phases based on their location in order to not overwhelm the electoral authorities. Can you imagine all of India’s 986.8 million eligible voters casting a ballot on the same day?

Conducting an election in India takes a massive state apparatus and thousands upon thousands of employees, collecting votes from the jungle to the Himalayas. India’s elections often see hiccups and violence, but that feels more like an inevitability than an indictment. India has issues, but elections aren’t a big one. It’s a massive accomplishment to have solid elections and democratic institutions in a country so big, and India should be proud.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in power since 2014 and isn’t going anywhere this year. His Bharatiya Janata Party (right-wing) is on the offensive, looking to expand its large majority in the Lok Sabha. Modi is tremendously popular and may be at the apex of his power. Most Indians feel he has restored India’s power on the world stage, improved infrastructure, and contributed to the country’s booming economy. Interestingly, Modi is quite a bit more popular than the BJP as a whole. This has contributed to opposition parties getting some recent wins on the state level, and perhaps opens a window for them in the future. For now though, the national government is Modi and the BJP’s. The real question is what will happen next election, as Modi is 73. If the BJP can’t find a successor with similar popularity and charisma, their reign may end with Modi’s.

That’s not to say it’s all been sunshine and roses with Modi. Indians either love or hate him, and while most love him, there are many detractors. He is a Hindu nationalist, and is often accused of aggravating sectarian tensions and fostering discrimination against the over 200 million Muslims in India. He also has also been accused, with some grounds, of taking authoritarian measures and favoring India’s business elite. It’s also worth noting that he faced what may have been the largest protest in human history, the 2021 farmers’ protest over a proposed deregulation of farming laws. If there was a more competent opposition, he and the BJP may be in a bit more trouble.

The opposition to the BJP is deeply uninspiring to most Indians, and it’s easy to see why. They’re fractured and seem utterly at a loss for ideas on how to counter Modi. The leading opposition party is the Indian National Congress (centrist/arguably center-left), which has had a horrid decade. They have been repeatedly crushed by the BJP, an experience they never used to have but are quickly getting used to. The party of Gandhi and Nehru was a leader in India’s independence movement and governed the country for most of the second half of the 20th century. There is room to mobilize opposition to the BJP, but the INC has not proven itself effective at doing so. They’re running on a legacy that people are starting to question more and more. It used to be taboo to criticize Mahatma Gandhi in India, but the BJP has gradually shifted the country’s narrative and identity away from its secular, post-colonial past. It seems regional parties have been doing a better job of contesting the BJP’s hold on power, but once the results from this year are in, I doubt any of the opposition will have done a good job contesting anything.

Some articles have come out recently in Western sources saying the opposition has been gaining momentum and may have a better showing than previously thought. Some say Modi is “rattled.” I personally think this is wishful thinking, as the West in general doesn’t love Modi and frequently heaps bad press on him. India has always kept the West at a distance, and the US especially is getting anxious about their assertiveness as their population and economy both keep growing. I see a lot of think pieces criticizing Modi’s policies and ideology, but it reads more to me as anger that he won’t fall in line than concern for India’s future.

I think the more interesting election to consider is the next election. Can the opposition learn some lessons and bounce back? Will Modi go for a fourth term, and become the longest-serving prime minister in Indian history? What if the BJP has to adjust to life without Modi carrying them?

Prediction: BJP landslide

Mexico

Population: 129 million

Election Date: June 2

Election Type: Presidential, Legislative (both chambers)

My level of knowledge about this election: Medium-high

Another seemingly lopsided contest is taking place in Mexico, but with the political spectrum flipped.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) is constitutionally barred from running for reelection, as Mexico limits its presidents to one six-year term. Yet, this election is all about him. It will serve as a referendum on AMLO and his Morena party’s (left-wing) leadership over the last six years.

If the voters could have AMLO for another term, they would. He commands a scorching approval rating of 66% and is the best standard-bearer the Mexican left has had in generations. Mexico, a country already more sympathetic than most to left-wing economics, has embraced AMLO’s emphasis on the state’s role in the economy. Neoliberalism has caused lots in pain to Mexico, and AMLO and Morena have explicitly run against it from the start. This newly-shaped economy has generally done well over the last six years, and Morena has rewarded its supporters with expanded welfare policies and a higher standard of living. He has brought an end to the country’s War on Drugs, which was a resounding failure. Unlike Modi and the BJP, it seems Morena may be hugely popular even without AMLO. In the national legislature, the left-wing coalition (a group of parties led by Morena) is gunning for a two-thirds supermajority, which would allow it to make more lasting and widespread changes. Mexico’s left-wing wave has been very populist, and much of it has revolved around forging a more independent and assertive path for Mexico on the international stage.

Mexico is guaranteed to elect its first female president. The likely winner will be Claudia Sheinbaum, who led Mexico City’s government for the past six years. Mexico City has been getting great press for a few years now, and Sheinbaum will take some deserved credit for that. Sheinbaum is Morena’s candidate, and seems set to continue AMLO’s policies. She’s running on the status quo, which polls show Mexicans like.

The main opposition candidate is Xóchitl Gálvez, a senator and the candidate for the PAN (conservative) and an alliance of other conservative parties. Gálvez is more progressive than your average conservative and seems sensible, but it’s honestly difficult to find information on what changes she would make. She is running on buzzwords like “pro-business” and “liberalizing the economy.” The PAN’s position seems to be “Let’s go back to neoliberalism and being the US’s lapdog!”, which is clearly not the national mood. The Mexican right is in disarray and is decidedly not populist. They are almost embarrassing in how directly they tell you they are working for big business interests.

Speaking of big business interests, take any US press coverage of this election with a grain of salt. Similar to Modi, the Western press also takes a lot of potshots at AMLO, but in a more eye-roll worthy way. Hit pieces on AMLO, Sheinbaum, and Morena use the same pro-business elite, pro-neoliberalism tone the PAN takes, but they even throw in some classic McCarthyist hits like “left-wing agenda” or “one-party state.” Take a look at this recent Wall Street Journal op-ed for some good laughs. American corporations are enraged that a Latin American left-wing populist movement is succeeding and giving money to the poor instead of them. Gone are the days when they could just get the CIA to coup Morena out of power. Tough luck, boys! We can’t all be United Fruit.

Prediction: Morena landslide

United Kingdom

Population: 68 million

Election Date: July 4

Election Type: Legislative (lower house)

My level of knowledge about this election: High

Just this week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the United Kingdom’s first general election since 2019, which will take place on July 4. As someone from Massachusetts, this makes me want to go dump tea in the harbor.

All Americanism aside, Sunak is likely scheduling his own demise, and it’s better now than later, I guess. He had until January 2025 to call an election, but he’s trying to harness the little momentum he has and pull off a shock win. It will be a very tall order.

The UK’s Conservative Party (conservative, yeah shocker I know) has been in power since 2010, and has accomplished… hmmm. Standards of living in the UK have gotten worse since 2010, a country that is having a catastrophic 21st century. The defining event of the Conservative Party’s 14 years was Brexit, considered an unmitigated disaster even by a lot of Conservative Party leaders and conservative voters. It’s pretty hard to top COVID, which the Conservative Party also terribly bungled.

To be fair, Rishi Sunak wasn’t the Prime Minister for either of those things. He only assumed the position in October 2022, when Liz Truss was laughed out of office after a 6-week(!) term. She took over for Boris Johnson, a man plagued with scandals who also resigned in disgrace. It will be hard for Sunak to wash the stink of his predecessors off him. He has inherited the worst hand as Prime Minister since Winston Churchill, and he hasn’t done much to help himself, but he hasn’t done much to drastically hurt himself either. The Conservatives are down 20% in the polls. Can Sunak turn it around?

If he can, he’ll have to rely on the opposition shooting itself in the foot. The UK is mostly a two-party system, and the other party is the Labour Party (center-”left”). It says a lot that despite the ugly past decade and a half the UK has had, Labour hasn’t been able to win any of the five elections that have taken place. It is a party that has struggled to find its identity post-Tony Blair, a Prime Minister who fully embraced the neoliberalism and optimism of the 90s and sculpted Labour into a more centrist party. After tacking back to the left under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, the party purged nearly all its leftist elements. Now, it’s a struggle to see what exactly Labour stands for. They’re running on “we’re not those guys,” which is working due to the Conservatives’ massive unpopularity. You can’t do that forever though, and eventually voters are going to wonder what exactly Labour can do for them. They can’t run on personality either, as their leader is the bland, milquetoast Keir Starmer.

Labour’s popularity is largely relying on the fact that voters haven’t seen much of them since 2019, and for years they could simply sit back and criticize the incumbent government. Now, they need to run a campaign, and I don’t think voters are going to love what they see. It’s hard to blow a 20-point lead, but it’s also hard to maintain it. While Labour will almost assuredly win, it probably won’t be the landslide most pollsters are predicting. Labour reeks to me of a party that will do little to remedy the UK’s issues once they’re elected, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Conservatives back in power in 2029.

Prediction: Labour wins a modest majority